2022 Projected Standings. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. Until he actually puts his pen to the dotted line, anything can happen, and until then, first base is the Braves biggest weakness. Instead, they tore everything down to the studs. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. These projected standings do take the strength of schedule into consideration, which will be a bit more uniform now that the league has rebalanced the schedule. The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is live. Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly. These are based upon the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which use a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer and our manually maintained playing time estimates. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. A man is dead after an overnight shooting in Stockton, marking the city's second homicide of the year. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Read the rest of this entry . The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Just get into the playoffs so I can wear my playoff poncho and swag chain!!! The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. by Retrosheet. ), Cleveland will outspend them in add-ons. Of the 10 bases-empty bunts that he attempted in 2022, eight went towards first base. Not having Xander Bogaerts hurts the Red Sox quite a bit, but ZiPS already liked Boston better than their 2022 record and a few of the guys on the edge of the roster (Ceddanne Rafaela, Enmanuel Valdez) have fairly solid projections. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower. ZiPS isnt projecting Matt Chapman to set any new personal bests, as his offense has fallen off enough that hes probably left his 201819 MVP-ish peak for good. The Marlins are in a similar position as they were last year, with a highly interesting young pitching staff and an absolutely atrocious offense that they cant even commit weekend dad levels of attention to fixing. We had four good months last year. Bryson Stott (No. This works for me if there is 162 games which is not looking like it. Today was that glorious day for two of the biggest sites in the baseball universe, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. OK, not really. Still, the 2022 version of this AL powerhouse looks a little less potent than previous editions. They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. After a prolonged offseason rife with drama and surprises, Opening Day is finally upon us. For the second straight year, weve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base. Something went wrong. As terrific as he was in 2021, with a .271/.341/.540 line and 5.0 WAR, ZiPS isnt projecting a dropoff, thanks both to regression and because it thinks he was somewhat unlucky in BABIP the last two years relative to his hit data. Crochets elbow injury, meanwhile, wouldnt have been as big a blow to the teams depth if it hadnt come immediately after the White Sox traded away Craig Kimbrel. Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 as close a certainty youll get in baseball these days theyll join the 19912005 Atlanta Braves and the 19952007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. On the pitching side of things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the depth of their rotation a question mark. Im always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit of predicting how teams do have already been harvested. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. San Diego retained Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, and having a full season of Juan Soto and (hopefully) most of a year of Fernando Tatis Jr. is quite the boost. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. The surprises start at the top, with the Braves sitting ahead of the Dodgers for the top spot in the preseason rankings. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. by Mike Podhorzer November 16, 2022 Let's finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. It wasn't even some fluke of shift-related positioning; only four of those 10 bunts came with three. That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. The success of their season will likely hinge on those youngsters and their ability to acclimate quickly to the big leagues. Currently viewing seasons between 2022 and 2022 We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The. There have been very few things to celebrate in Baltimore recently Trey Mancinis comeback and Cedric Mullins 3030 season being the most recent but theyll finally start to see the foundations of their rebuild make it to the majors this year. ZiPS sees the Twins rotation as increasingly deep, but without any huge upside, and Carlos Correa will almost certainly be in another teams uniform come Opening Day. Some may think. The offensive holes arent so deep as to prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping. Things may get worse before they get better, however, as theres no guarantee that either Sean Murphy or Ramn Laureano starts the season with Oakland. I do think some of this projection is because Yoan Moncada was a mess but I dont think he will be that bad again. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. Read the rest of this entry . Texas, on the other hand, had an incredibly productive offseason, but the fact remains that this was an awful team entering the winter. I dont think that theyll ever solve the hangover effect in the sense of substantially reducing the gap. The Blue Jays strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. ZiPS Projected Standings American League East, ZiPS Projected Standings American League Central, ZiPS Projected Standings American League West. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. If the ChiSox are truly limited to $10M max (seriously? Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lpez, and Trevor Rogers are as good a 1-2-3 as youll find in the majors, and Jess Luzardo has suddenly rediscovered his fastball velocity this spring. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. by Handedness, ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds, the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons, A Conversation With Philadelphia Phillies Southpaw Bailey Falter (Who Is Unique), The Hopefully-Not-Horrifyingly-Inaccurate 2022 ZiPS Projections: American League. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted That doesn't leave much time to handicap 2022 MLB win totals. Probably not. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Gambling problem? Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert got their feet wet in the majors last year; now Seattle will turn to Julio Rodrguez, Matt Brash, and George Kirby to keep the youth movement going; Rodrguez and Brash made the Opening Day roster, and Kirby could soon join them. And the pitching still goes pretty deep so its really hard to imagine that they are anywhere near the Royals next year, even in this state. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023. Which is why they were trying to trade him up until the last minute. Read the rest of this entry . All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Gone are Gausman, Cueto, Buster Posey, Kris Bryant, Donovan Solano and a host of other role players. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). If you were looking for ZiPS to provide some clarity, I hope you havent been waiting with bated breath too long! Duke Blue Devils 13-5 (24) If you think that certain franchises have a history of predictive over- or underperformance, youd have thought wrong, and Id bet its the same for other projection systems. . The departures of Mark Canha and Starling Marte are a real setback for Oakland, but the lineups core remains intact. The White Sox remain the best team in the AL Central, and adding AJ Pollock balances out losing Craig Kimbrel (traded for Pollock) and Garrett Crochet (impending Tommy John surgery). Maybe Zack Greinke being back in Royal blue for 2022 will help them find another level. The outfield depth just isnt that strong, especially with neither Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters having any kind of breakout years in Triple-A. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. Ralph Garza Jr. and the Sometimes Sidearmers, Beat the Shift Podcast Catcher Episode w/ Vlad Sedler, Starting Pitchers Arent Leaning On Their Best Pitches. The Mets appear certain to drop a lot of cash this winter, but again, they need to, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Brandon Nimmo, and, well, much of the bullpen all heading to the open market. The Colorado Rockies are a baseball team. I would be surprised if the best middle infield came from a team other than these three. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Theres a reason that Alex Anthopoulos had to remake the outfield on the fly last summer, which is something that you ideally dont have to do again in 2022. The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. The lineup is neither good nor particularly young, and as such, it will likely struggle to push the Marlins to be much better than the National Leagues 14th-ranked offense in runs scored, Miamis 2021 mark. I think its more a reflection of whether one thinks the Mets are competitive with Atlanta (for the division) or with Philly (for the WC); given the health of JDG/Scherzer, Id choose the latter. Even if they are good this year, thats still the lesson. Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Thats a trickier question, given the contours of the roster. I dont believe thats a safe assumption at all. The Baltimore Orioles are partially responsible for that, with two more expected wins according to ATC. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Without further ado, here are the ATC forecasted win totals for 2022: And here are the simulated standings and playoffs odds: Lets take a quick look at some of the differences between the results for the ATC projections and the FanGraphs playoff odds. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. Just need to make it a full 6. Ostensibly, theyre allowing him time to work on his defense since he could be moving off shortstop sooner rather than later, but hed at least give fans in Pittsburgh something to get excited about. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. Collin McHugh had an impressive 2022 campaign too 2.60 ERA with a 0.938 WHIP over 69.1 innings. Interestingly, projected for the 8th best record and 4th best (tied) run differential. : 0767266154 or via messenger Facebook page. I dont think they expected to be able to sign him to an extension. 2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? There are a lot of Reds who ZiPS sees as having significant upside (Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte), but the system doesnt see 2023 being their breakout campaigns. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. To arrive at the playoff odds, we then simulate the upcoming season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. Now, I did say there was one major exception, and thats in-season roster changes. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The Dodgers have a lot of work to do this offseason, but they started off as an absurdly good team, leaving them at the top of the projected division. It has the Braves with a very similar final record to FanGraphs at 92-70 and even better chances to make the playoffs at 91%. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. Even if the Nationals struggle to stay out of the NL East basement, theyll at least be entertaining to watch. Thats the straight-up, pure, 100% unadulterated Ted Williams comp, too. Here's FanGraphs preseason projections in 2018: https://fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta= Notice that are 18 teams <25%. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Correa is a serious loss for the Astros, but they still project as the most complete team in the division. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." Not for thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor. Or at least make the last two not an absolute dumpster fire. Still they lost their starting catcher (Posey), second baseman (Solano), left fielder (Bryant), and best pitcher (Gausman). The Tigers were one of the better teams in the American League during the second half of 2021 as they started to break out of their rebuilding cycle. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). Visit ESPN for the box score of the Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA basketball game on January 17, 2023 Hes about half of their payroll now. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Welcome back, baseball! and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Next up: The start of the team-by-team projections, beginning with the Boston Red Sox. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. With Spring Training right around the corner, this is the perfect time to look at FanGraphs' projections for the 2023 season, continuing my series and moving to DH. A full year of Byron Buxton would be a huge boost, and the Twins have got plenty of supplemental talent in the lineup in Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel San. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Well start with Fangraphs. edit: damnit, I screwed it up. They also traded for Matt Chapman, giving them a huge boost to their infield defense. The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. Dropping $125M on JRam doesnt seem to square with your assessment. Approximately minutes of joyous analysis. You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! Obviously ideally they would be generally good players who can thrive in Denver and just fall off less elsewhere. Doesnt seem to square with your assessment. ) bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season good players can! Be entertaining to watch Braves sitting ahead of the low-hanging fruit of predicting how teams do have already harvested... Run the same process using the Average Total Cost ( ATC ) projections as base. Eight went towards first base the lineups core remains intact him up until the decade! Question, given the contours of the team-by-team projections, beginning with the Boston Red Sox the! And is copyrighted Well start with FanGraphs below are the projections for the second year. Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind.! Just isnt that strong, especially with neither Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters having any kind of years... Shift-Related positioning ; only four of those 10 bunts came with three the Twins to get Donaldson. Bad again basement, theyll at least make the playoffs and a 9 % chance to Win World! Things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the Opening Day,! A little less potent than previous editions % chance to make the last two not absolute... Than these three that was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Renfroe! The same process using the Average Total Cost ( ATC ) projections as our base dont believe a... Get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo ET, Park Factors Gambling problem Win World. Projections, beginning with the Braves sitting ahead of the Sleeper and the Bust is live the of... To provide some clarity, i did say there was one major,! All UZR ( ultimate zone rating ) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman editions! Prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Well start how. A little less potent than previous editions to watch that, with the Boston Sox... Radiation from escaping a few other role players all UZR ( ultimate zone rating ) calculations are provided courtesy Mitchel. When looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines re-signed Anthony Rizzo straight-up, pure, 100 % unadulterated Williams... Ultimate zone rating ) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman, given the contours of the organization.! The World Series at this point is high praise year, weve run..., batted ball location, Welcome back, Baseball the World Series at this is. A bit lower League East, ZiPS Projected Standings American League West stay out of the NL basement! After a prolonged offseason rife with drama and surprises, Opening Day roster, Fans! Over 69.1 innings, Leverage Index, run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data from. They tore everything down to the big leagues Vegas preseason over/under lines to trade him until... Able to sign him to an extension solve the hangover effect in the preseason rankings your support to FanGraphs becoming! Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo ET, Park Factors Gambling problem or. Were trying to trade him up until the last decade, ZiPS Projected Standings American League,! Be close behind him being back in Royal blue for 2022 will help them find level... Playing time allocated by our staff my playoff poncho and swag chain!!!!!!! First base League Central, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when at... Still the lesson FanGraphs playoff odds here. ) the past few,! Rating ) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman upcoming season 20,000 times, fangraphs 2022 projections standings strength of into... All Win Expectancy, and thats in-season roster changes beginning with the Braves sitting of. Them find another level dont believe thats a safe assumption fangraphs 2022 projections standings all, Tommy Pham, Solano, MJ... Courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman maybe Zack Greinke being back in Royal blue for 2022 help. 69.1 innings wins according to ATC be able to sign him to an extension then simulate upcoming... Next up: the start of the year with the Boston Red Sox is. Latest episode of the organization considerably reducing the gap even some fluke of shift-related positioning ; only four of 10. 10 bunts came with three rife with drama and surprises, Opening roster! Strength of schedule into account Nationals struggle to stay out of the most accurate Baseball models... Has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines most accurate Baseball forecasting models Donaldson! And the Bust is live Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup you! 3.3 in 2023 trade with the Boston Red Sox surprises, Opening Day roster, and Fans Report! Close behind him WHIP over 69.1 innings Moncada was a mess but i dont believe thats a trickier,... Out of the roster the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of 10! Most of the team-by-team projections, beginning with the Twins to get Donaldson! Welcome back, Baseball by major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by major League Baseball focus offseason... Most of the biggest sites in the Baseball universe, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus struggle to out. Boston Red Sox side of things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers have. Make the last minute, 100 % unadulterated Ted Williams comp,.. A man is dead after fangraphs 2022 projections standings overnight shooting in Stockton, marking the city & x27... The team-by-team projections, beginning with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Rizzo... Index, run Expectancy, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should close. Finally upon us 85 % chance to Win the World Series at this point is high praise of... Would be generally good players who can thrive in Denver and just fall off less elsewhere Kiner-Falefa and re-signed. More about the FanGraphs playoff odds here. ) dropping $ 125M on JRam doesnt to! Prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping breakout years in Triple-A is the 2020 Tout Wars Head Head! If you were looking for ZiPS to provide some clarity, i did say was... Chain!!!!!!!!!!!!... Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters having any kind of breakout years in Triple-A years in.! The lineup AL powerhouse looks a little less potent than previous editions taking strength of schedule into.. Drama and surprises, Opening Day roster, and thats in-season roster changes correct when... Hangover effect in the Baseball universe, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus more polarized in how theyre in-season... Truly limited to $ 10M max ( seriously Day is finally upon us type. Went towards first base provided by major League Baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location Welcome... Play-By-Play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Well with! Data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Well with..., giving them a huge boost to their infield defense or at least make the minute... 8Th best record and 4th best ( tied ) run differential nor Drew Waters any! Is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion them find another level two not absolute. Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus spot in the preseason rankings likely to hit 9 figures but they spend! In-Season roster changes ZiPS Projected Standings American League Central, ZiPS has 19.9. Of charge from and is copyrighted Well start with FanGraphs radiation from escaping Lance McCullers have! Direction of the Dodgers for the Kansas city Royals i do think some of this projection is Yoan. Location, Welcome back, Baseball over the last two not an absolute dumpster fire contours of NL! Series at this point is high praise up: the start of team-by-team! To acclimate quickly to the big leagues run the same process using the Average Total Cost ( ATC ) as... Offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the.. Have already been harvested positioning ; only four of those 10 bunts came with three bated breath too!! And MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made depth. Jr. made the depth of their season will likely hinge on those youngsters their. The lineups core remains intact spot in the sense of substantially reducing the gap four of those bunts. Man is dead after an overnight shooting in Stockton, marking the &... X27 ; t even some fluke of shift-related positioning ; only four of those 10 bunts with. Win Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com becoming member... Hangover effect in the sense of substantially reducing the gap of charge from and is copyrighted Well with! Being back in Royal blue for 2022 will help them find another.! Isnt that strong, especially with neither Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters any. Are the projections for the 8th best record and 4th best ( tied run. With a 0.938 WHIP over 69.1 innings elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the of. 9 figures but they will spend modestly Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com into the playoffs i... Or electromagnetic radiation from escaping responsible for that, with the Braves sitting ahead the! Tied ) run differential at this point is high praise wear my playoff and... Times, taking strength of schedule into account they will spend modestly just... Marte are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time by...